UDC 630
UDC 502.45
Identification of the causes of changes in the recurrence of thunderstorms, which are one of the causes of landscape fires, is an urgent problem of management of organizational systems. It is known that these changes in many regions are significantly influenced by changes in their thermal regime. They are also controlled by variations in the fluxes of cosmic rays penetrating the troposphere, which cause air ionization. Such fluxes are usually increased in the regions located near the magnetic poles. During the period of observations of the position of the north magnetic pole, its displacement from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (territory of Nunavut (Canada)) to the Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia) by almost 2500 km has been revealed. In the 21st century, this displacement has accelerated and the recurrence of thunderstorms over many points in Siberia has increased, which suggests the significance of a causal relationship between the processes under study. The purpose of this work was to carry out such a check. Changes in the frequency of thunderstorms over points in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Yakutia, and Nunavut, which are located between the parallels 60o N and 65o N, were studied. It was found that the rate of increase in the average thunderstorm frequency for all studied locations in Siberia in the 21st century was significantly higher than for any locations in Nunavut. Since the warming of the local climate in the studied points of Siberia and Canada was almost the same, the obtained result proves that the influence of the shift of the northern magnetic pole on the changes in the frequency of thunderstorms over the studied points was significant. Consequently, at further displacement of the pole in the same direction, the recurrence of thunderstorms over the mentioned regions of Siberia, and hence the number of landscape fires occurring in their territories, will increase significantly
thunderstorm recurrence, fire hazard, north magnetic pole, climate warming, siberia, nunavut territory, trend
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