UDC 630
UDC 502.45
Long-term forecasts of changes in the number of forest fires detected per year on the territory of Yakutia should be taken into account when making management decisions to ensure fire safety in the region. The purpose of this work is to develop and assess the feasibility of forecasts of the number of forest fires for the territory of Yakutia for 2024 and 2025, taking into account changes in cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity. To achieve this goal, among the factors mentioned above, the predictors of the prognostic model of the processes under study were determined, taking into account which provided satisfactory justifiability of the forecasts under consideration for 2017 - 2023. The obtained results indicate that in 2000 - 2023 the scenario of the studied process was close to the conservative one. It follows from the developed forecasts that if the scenario of further changes in fire danger in Yakutia remains the same, the number of forest fires that will occur on its territory in 2024 and 2025 will not exceed the level of 2023. It is advisable to take into account the developed forecasts when planning the main activities of the relevant functional subsystems of the Unified State System for Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations
republic of sakha (yakutia), forest burning, solar activity, thermal regime, secondary cosmic ray flux, assessment, prediction
1. Klassifikaciya meteorologicheskih prognozov. // sayt Gidrometcentra RF. - URL: https://meteoinfo.ru/forcabout/1597-f (data obrascheniya 15.04.2024).
2. Holopcev A. V., Nikiforova M. P. Solnechnaya aktivnost' i prognozy fiziko-geograficheskih processov. / LAP LAMBERT Academic Pablishing. - 2013. - 333 p. -. ISBN: 978-3-659-41130-4
3. Informacionnaya sistema distancionnogo monitoringa Federal'nogo agentstva lesnogo hozyaystva // baza dannyh ISDM-Rosleshoz, 2024, Moskva, dannye v formate exel. URL: https://pushkino.aviales.ru/main_pages/index.shtml (data obrascheniya 05.04.2024).
4. Sverlova, L. I. Metod ocenki pozharnoy opasnosti v lesah po usloviyam pogody s uchetom poyasov atmosfernoy zasushlivosti i sezonov goda. Habarovsk. - 2000. - 46 s.
5. Krainev M.B., Bazilevskaya G.A., Kalinin M.S., Mikhailov V.V., Svirzhevskaya A.K., Svirzhevsky N.S., Luo X., Potgieter M.S. Galactic cosmic ray intensity in periods of the heliospheric magnetic field inversion // Solnechnaya i Solnechno-zemnaya fizika. - 2023. - t. 9.- No 4. - S. 187-191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/szf-94202301
6. Issledovanie Forbush-effektov vo vremya moschnyh solnechnyh vspyshek po dannym myuonnogo godoskopa URAGAN / A. A. Kovylyaeva, N. S. Barbashina, V. G. Getmanov [i dr.] // Izvestiya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. Seriya fizicheskaya. - 2021. - T. 85, No 4. - S. 605-608. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31857/S0367676521030145 EDN: https://elibrary.ru/BXANQQ
7. Baza dannyh ob izmeneniyah global'nyh klimaticheskih indeksov // NOAA/PSL, 2024, format dannyh html. URL: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data (data obrascheniya 10.04.2024).
8. Dolgoprudnenskaya nauchnaya stanciya imeni S.N. Vernova. Laboratoriya fiziki Solnca i kosmicheskih luchey. Fizicheskiy institut imeni P.N. Lebedeva RAN // sayt. - URL: https://sites.lebede3v.ru/DNS_FIAN (data obrascheniya 05.04.2024).
9. Petrunin, N. A. Indikativnyy analiz gorimosti lesov v Rossii / N. A. Petrunin // Trudy Sankt-Peterburgskogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogo instituta lesnogo hozyaystva. - 2022. - No 4. - S. 115-137. DOI:https://doi.org/10.21178/2079-6080.2022.4.115 EDN: https://elibrary.ru/VXCDHC
10. Ivanova G. A., Ivanov V. A., Musohranova A. V., Onuchin A. A Lesnye pozhary i prichiny ih vozniknoveniya na territorii Sredney Sibiri // Sibirskiy lesnoy zhurnal. 2023. No 6. S. 6-16. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15372/SJFS20230602 EDN: https://elibrary.ru/WLJIIC
