UDC 004.021
The article presents a mathematical model for determining the daily number of fires requiring the involvement of gas and smoke protection services (hereinafter referred to as GSPS). The author proposes a stochastic approach to modeling and forecasting parameters, enabling the optimization of resource allocation. This, in turn, contributes to reducing damage from emergencies.The practical significance of the results lies in the potential application of the proposed methodology for planning GSPS activities in the Republic of Kazakhstan, where considerable attention is given to these issues. The article analyzes the temporal characteristics of GSPS operations, such as response time, preparation, and execution of actions in an environment unsuitable for breathing (USB). It has been established that the most critical indicators are the time spent by the team and the probability of requiring repeated engagement cycles.Based on statistical fire data, a model was developed to predict the frequency of GSPS usage. The model underwent statistical validation and was deemed adequate. The results can be used to optimize team size, reserve distribution, and work safety measures.Thus, the study unveils new opportunities for enhancing the efficiency and reliability of GSPS operations in emergencies. The findings can be applied to organizing GSPS teams in departments (allocation of teams per shift), forming GSPS reserves, calculating equipment provisioning norms, and ensuring safety during operations in USB environments
fire safety, decision making, modelling of the number of fires
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