UDC 311.21
The article considers approaches to modelling the processes of fire safety management in the state. It is determined that the integral part of management of the system of fire safety of the state is the analysis of the situation with fires on the territory of the state. The analysis of the situation with fires in the Republic of Tajikistan from 2019 to 2023 has been made, which allows to identify the distribution of calls for fires by months, days of the week, hours of the day, as well as regions of the country. On the basis of this analysis it is possible to develop a machine learning model that will allow to predict the situation with fires in the country, and subsequently develop a programme for the redistribution of firefighting resources of the Republic of Tajikistan. The study highlights the importance of collection and analysis of statistical data, which are currently stored in analogue format, which makes operational planning difficult. The use of the COSMAS simulation system, which has proven its effectiveness in Russia and 45 other countries, is proposed for modelling the activities of emergency services. Poisson's laws and gamma distributions are used to predict call flows and temporal characteristics of service operation. Analysis of archived fire data from 2019 to 2023 reveals the distribution of fires by month, day of the week and time of day, as well as their geographical concentration. The average annual number of fires is 1145, with a uniform distribution by day of the week and an increase in frequency during the daytime. Based on the data, it is proposed to develop a machine learning model for fire forecasting and reallocation of resources of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan. The introduction of a digital database will improve the efficiency of management and fire safety
fires, statistical data, modeling of management processes
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