UDC 681.5
The article presents a comprehensive model and a set of algorithms for managing the safety of the territory and population, focused on preventing and effectively responding to man-made emergencies. To solve the problems of heterogeneity of the initial data (concentration of substances, distance, amount of equipment, etc.), the authors use the Harrington desirability function, which transforms physical parameters into a universal dimensionless scale from 0 to 1. The mathematical tool used allows objectively comparing and combining completely different indicators, which is a criterion for a comprehensive safety assessment. To normalize the data, both one-sided and two-sided restrictions are used depending on the nature parameter, the generalized indicator for each group is calculated as a root-mean-square value, which ensures resistance to extreme values. To solve the problem of distributing limited resources with a given budget, an approach based on the Pareto distribution is proposed. Particular attention is paid to adaptability models: weighting factors can be adjusted depending on the type of current threat, and structural models allow easy scaling and adaptation of the approach to the specifics of various territories, including closed administrative-territorial entities. The developed methodology allows quantitative assessment of the population's security, taking into account the state of potentially dangerous objects, the response time of forces and means and their sufficiency. The article demonstrates the transition from the traditional Safety I concept, focused on incident response, to the modern Safety II paradigm, based on preventive risk management and forecasting
upravlenie bezopasnost'yu, kompleksnaya bezopasnost', chrezvychaynye situacii, algoritmy prinyatiya resheniy, funkciya zhelatel'nosti harringtona, zaschischennost' naseleniya, mnozhestvo pareto, rschs
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