UDC 614.841.42
Some of the reasons for the increased fire hazard due to weather conditions in any area of European Russia belonging to its Forest or Arctic zone are variations in the corresponding average monthly surface air temperatures, as well as monthly precipitation amounts. The factors causing these variations include changes in the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which has tended to weaken since the mid-19th century. The latter is caused by the warming of Greenland's climate, which results in an increase in the volume of cold fresh water entering the North Atlantic as the island's ice sheet melts. Her verification showed that such areas exist for the months from March to June in the territories of some regions of the European part of Russia, which belong to the Forest and Arctic zones. The obtained results allow us to assume that with further warming of the thermal regime in Greenland, the increase in fire danger due to weather conditions in some spring-summer months in the north of the European territory of Russia will continue. This forecast may come true in the future during the period during which the ice cover will remain on the territory of Greenland, and also on the condition that the current “soft” stage of weakening of the circulation in question does not turn into a “catastrophic” one. Since it is highly probable that the current scenario for the development of the processes under consideration will continue in the coming decades, it is advisable to take the proposed forecast into account when planning the further development of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia
territoriya evropy, grenlandiya, atlanticheskaya meridional'naya oprokidyvayuschaya cirkulyaciya, poteplenie termicheskogo rezhima, pozharoopasnost' po usloviyam pogody
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