The paper considers the author's methods of calculating the social effect that occurs when notifying the population about the threat of emergency situations (emergencies) caused by dangerous weather conditions to ensure the necessary level of security, including on the territory of the Republic of Crimea. To calculate the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency caused by dangerous weather conditions, a regression analysis method was used. The article proposes criteria that affect the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency. The weight values of the criteria are determined by the hierarchy analysis method. It is proposed to determine the indicators of the criteria by conducting a social experiment. A mathematical model is presented for assessing the effectiveness of the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency and the occurrence of emergencies caused by dangerous and unfavorable events based on regression analysis
weather conditions, social effect, regression analysis, emergency notification of the population
1. Tapancev A.A., Regressionnyy analiz i planirovanie ispytaniy v zadachah prinyatiya resheniy: monografiya. SPb.: IPT RAN, 2017. 174 s. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/YSJSSR
2. Kostina N.B., Duran T.V., Kalugina D.A. Teoriya upravleniya. M.: Infra-M, 2017. 252s. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/YNVEQB DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/textbook_58e741bf9ba680.66410298
3. Berezhnoy D. A., Butuzov S. Yu. Model' ocenki neobhodimogo vremeni srabatyvaniya sistemy informirovaniya i opovescheniya naseleniya pri chrezvychaynyh situaciyah i krupnyh pozharah // Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-tehnicheskoy konferencii "Sistemy bezopasnosti". - 2020. - No 29. - S. 203-209. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/VICEYA
4. Razhnikov S. V. Kriterii ocenki effektivnosti sistemy informirovaniya i opovescheniya naseleniya v chrezvychaynyh situaciyah // Vestnik Kokshetauskogo tehnicheskogo instituta. - 2017. - No 1 (25). - S. 29-37.
5. Razhnikov S. V. Zadachi sistemy upravleniya opovescheniem i obucheniem naseleniya pri chrezvychaynyh situaciyah municipal'nogo urovnya //Materialy 4-y vserossiyskoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem "Problemy obespecheniya bezopasnosti pri likvidacii posledstviy chrezvychaynyh situaciy". Voronezh: Voronezhskiy institut GPS MChS Rossii, 2015. 241-254s.
