UDC 519.816
UDC 614.8
UDC 51-7
The article discusses the current problem of modeling traffic accidents (TA) in order to improve the safety of transport infrastructure and the efficiency of emergency services response. The priority vector is the development of an integrated approach and the creation of a multifactorial model for predicting accidents in road transport. The theoretical basis of the study is formed by studying the possible scenarios of the occurrence and development of emergencies as a result of traffic accidents. The proposed methodological approach integrates the application of Kolmogorov-Chapman differential equations and the three-parameter Weibull distribution to quantify the temporal characteristics of system transitions. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the possible states of the system, taking into account the operation of four types of sensors: temperature, pressure, vehicle position, and impact. The paper describes 16 possible scenarios for the development of an emergency situation, each of which is characterized by a specific set of parameters. Special attention is paid to the issue of determining the parameters of the Weibull distribution, for which the method of expert estimation is proposed due to the lack of statistical data on accidents. A system of criteria for evaluating the distribution parameters has been developed, including the scale, shape, and shift coefficients. The applied potential of the research is revealed through the possibility of using the developed model to enhance the effectiveness of preventive measures and optimize emergency response processes. The results of the work can be used in the development of security systems, planning the actions of emergency services, and improving the methods of forecasting the development of emergency situations. The proposed approach allows for a more accurate modeling of the development of emergency situations, which contributes to improving the emergency response system and enhancing the overall safety of transport infrastructure
modelirovanie, dorozhno-transportnoe proisshestvie, bezopasnost', transportnaya infrastruktura, ekstrennye sluzhby, prognozirovanie, differencial'nye uravneniya, datchiki, chrezvychaynaya situaciya
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